CAN AN ALGORITHM PREVENT SUICIDE?

 CAN AN ALGORITHM PREVENT SUICIDE?

In USA, majority of the suicides are by veterans.

For >10y, suicide rates have increased steadily (by 30% since 2000) and rates in the VA system have been more than in the general population.

The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) in USA has turned to machine-learning to help identify vets at risk of taking their own lives.

"We can't rely on trained medical experts to identify people who are truly at high risk." -Dr, Marianne S. Goodman, a psychiatrist at the Veterans Integrated Service Network in the Bronx.

Barry, a decorated Vietnam veteran, at his recent visit to the VA clinic in the Bronx, learned that he belonged to a very exclusive club. According to a new AI-assisted algorithm, he was one of the several hundred VA patients nationwide, out of total 6Mn, deemed at imminent risk of suicide.

For the ones flagged to be at high risk, his/her name shows up onthe computer dashboard of the local clinic's Research Vet coordinator, who calls to arrange an appointment. It is assured that NO kind of weapon is in their possession or proximity and that they have a loved one's photo, a support system(friends, family, support groups, etc.) and suicide prevention hotline with themselves.

The VA's algorithm updates continually, generating a new list of high-risk veterans each month. Some names stay on the list for months while others fall off.

Doctors have traditionally gauged patients' risks by looking at the past mental health diagnoses and incidents of substance abuse, and by drawing on experience + medical instinct. BUT:

These evaluations fall well short of predictive. The AI programs explore many more factors like employment & marital status, physical ailments, prescription history & hospital visits. These algorithms are black boxes: they flag a person without providing any rationale.

Deploying AI in this way is NOT new. Researchers have been gathering data on suicides through the NHS in Britain since 1996.

The US Army, Kaiser Permananente and Massachussets General Hospital each has separately developed an algorithm intended to prevent suicide risk.